(Brazil): Brazil is heading toward recording the largest coffee production in its history in 2026. According to the first official crop estimate released by the National Supply Company (Conab), the country’s coffee output could reach 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags.
This estimate represents an increase of 17.1 percent compared to the 2025 crop. If it materializes, it would be the highest coffee production ever recorded in Brazil’s official records. Previously, the record was set in 2020 with 63.1 million bags.
According to Conab’s First Coffee Crop Survey 2026 report, favorable weather, improved agricultural techniques, and advanced farming practices are key factors behind this increase. Additionally, Brazil is entering the positive phase of coffee production’s natural biennial cycle, in which one year sees lower output followed by higher production the next year.
According to the report, the area under coffee cultivation in 2026 could increase by 4.1 percent to about 1.9 million hectares. Meanwhile, average productivity is estimated at 34.2 bags per hectare, which is 12.4 percent higher than in the previous season.
Increase in both Arabica and Conilon
Arabica coffee, which is most affected by the biennial cycle, is expected to see the strongest growth. Its production is estimated at 44.1 million bags, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3 percent. Meanwhile, Conilon coffee production is estimated at 22.1 million bags, a 6.4 percent rise that could also mark a new record for this variety.
Strong performance expected across states
At the state level as well, a broad-based increase in production is expected. In Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-producing state, output is projected to reach 32.4 million bags.
- Production in São Paulo is estimated at 5.5 million bags.
- Bahia is expected to produce about 4.6 million bags.
- In Espírito Santo, the leading Conilon-producing state, output could rise by 9 percent to 19 million bags.
- In Rondônia, the use of higher-yielding clonal plants is likely to boost production by 18.3 percent, reaching up to 2.7 million bags.
Impact of global demand and prices
Although Brazil’s coffee export volumes fell by 17.1 percent in 2025, the country still achieved record export revenues of USD 16.1 billion. This was mainly driven by a sharp 57.2 percent increase in average coffee prices.
In 2026 as well, coffee prices are likely to remain strong. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee consumption could reach 173.9 million bags, while global inventories are expected to remain limited, continuing to support prices in the international market.