The attack comes despite Russia’s vociferous support for Palestine, clearly implying that the primary goal of ISIS is to strike terror on humanity at large
By Shujaat Ali Quadri
The recent attack by ISIS in Moscow that killed over 137 people has once again brought the terrorist group into limelight. The ability of ISIS-K to carry out such a deadly attack is proof that neither its ouster from the Middle-East, nor the Taliban’s war against the group has proved effective in countering it.
Russia’s involvement in the Syrian civil war, wherein Moscow intervened to protect the Bashar Assad regime, has come to haunt it as ISIS-K plans to launch more such attacks. Russia’s closeness to the Taliban remains a bone of contention, given the latter’s all-out war against ISIS-K in the eastern and northern provinces of Afghanistan.
The same areas, especially Kunar and Nangarhar, along with the erstwhile FATA territory, are central to Al-Qaeda’s strategy. It had hoped to exhaust the American forces in the complex terrain along the Durand Line, which is part of the Khorasan region. Like Al-Qaeda, the ISIS-K wanted to control Afghanistan after the American withdrawal, beginning with wresting control of the same territories.
The attack comes despite Russia’s vociferous support for Palestine, clearly implying that the primary goal of ISIS is to strike terror on humanity at large. Back in 2022, the group claimed a suicide attack near the Russian embassy in Kabul which had killed six people. Media channels in Moscow reported that in March 2024 alone, multiple attempts were thwarted by the security agencies.
The other issue is the flourishing ISIS-K sanctuaries in the Af-Pak region that are an open secret. They have grown out of the disgruntled members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP). The Pakistani Army claims to have taken a serious stance against terrorism, but its approach remains ambiguous at best.
The districts in the Pakistani side of the Durand Line remain volatile with flourishing sanctuaries of TTP-ISIS. Sanaullah Ghafari, the head of ISIS-K, is known to have escaped Afghanistan and crossed into Pakistan; he is believed to be hiding in Balochistan.
In July 2023, the ISIS-K claimed a suicide bombing on a political rally in Bajaur, a border region in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Leaders of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal (JUI-F) were the primary targets of the bombing.
Both TTP and ISIS have targeted religious parties that remain critical of the Pakistan Army. Pakistan’s inability to tackle growing radicalization is reflected in its haphazard policies, wherein it began to expel Afghans, accusing them as potential terrorists.
Under Ghafari’s leadership (an Afghan of Tajik ethnicity), ISIS-K has made successful inroads into Tajikistan. The discovery of Tajik passports with the attackers is a grim reminder of ISIS-K’s influence, deep inside Central Asia. A report in July 2023, brought out by by the UN Security Council, have estimated 4,000 to 6,000 active fighters in Daesh .
The growing strategic engagement between India and the Taliban leadership, and the gradual revival of Indian projects in Afghanistan, should be a cause of worry for the ISIS-K. They have recently issued a threat to carry out attacks in India and may want to attract potential recruits.
While India remains peaceful owing to a robust de-radicalization programme, and the strong influence of Sufi institutions, the threat of Daesh cannot be ruled out. The role of community elders, academics and experts on ‘Political Islam’ will be paramount in working with security institutions, in exposing Daesh’s influence on the youth in India.