By Justice Markandey Katju–
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge, Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
The U.S. government and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire for 2 weeks. The question is whether the ceasefire will continue thereafter. My opinion is that it will, but to explain my reasons, one has to go deeper into the matter.
The real ruler of America is not its President, Donald Trump, but its big business class. This class is broadly divided into 2 groups: (1) the arms manufacturers, which consist of gigantic companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, RTX Corporation, Northrop Grumman, etc., and (2) the rest.
Of these two, often the former is the dominant group, which controls broad U.S. policies through its agents, the U.S. politicians.
The arms manufacturers are pro-war, as war generates demand for their products and thus increases their profits.
Former U.S. President Eisenhower, in his 1961 farewell address, warned of the “military-industrial complex”—the dangerous convergence of a massive military establishment and a large private arms industry. He cautioned that this alliance, growing in the Cold War era, could gain unwarranted influence and threaten democratic processes and peace, advising that only an alert citizenry could protect against it.
However, Eisenhower’s advice was ignored, and the arms manufacturers continued to grow and become more and more powerful, demanding that the U.S. government wage regular wars (so as to continue and increase their profits). Hence, when one war by America ended, another began after some time. Thus, the Korean War was followed by the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, the Afghanistan War, and now the Iran war. There were many smaller wars also.
This being so, how can I then say that the 2 weeks peace between the United States and Iran will continue even thereafter? Will not the arms manufacturers put pressure on Trump to continue the war, so that demand for their weapons continues or increases?
My answer is that undoubtedly the arms manufacturers will put such pressure on the U.S. government. But there is another pressure on the U.S. government, and that is the steadily growing pressure of the American public to stop this war, which the majority of the American public not only perceive as immoral and unjustified but which is also gradually hitting them hard economically.
Wars are very expensive affairs (each Tomahawk missile costs 2.5 million dollars). A lengthy war will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Now Trump has proposed a 1.5 trillion dollar defense expenditure in the 2027 U.S. budget, a 50% increase over last year.
Where will all this money come from?
This money can only come from increased taxation on the American people, while drastically slashing expenditure on health, education, pensions, etc. Already, gas prices and the cost of living have gone up.
The American public has responded with massive ‘No Kings’ demonstrations on the streets of U.S. cities, in which millions participated.
Also, many people in Middle Eastern countries, e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqis, etc., have risen up in support of Iran, and more would have followed suit if the war had continued.
Hence, despite the pressure of the arms manufacturers to continue the war, Trump had to yield before this greater pressure.
Some people think that the war will continue since Israel was not part of the U.S.-Iran agreement, and it will continue attacking Iran.
Such people forget that Israel cannot survive for long without U.S. weapons and other aid. In fact, Israel is nothing but a Western military garrison planted by the Westerners in the heart of the Middle East to ensure a safe supply of oil from there to the Western countries.
To think that Israel can act independently of the U.S. is a totally false notion. For taking any important decision, Israel must take the permission of the U.S. government.
So the ceasefire will continue well beyond 2 weeks (though there may be some short, sporadic incidents).
However, after things have subsided (maybe after a few months or years), the U.S. arms manufacturers will again put great pressure on the U.S. government to start another war somewhere in the globe. After all, the vampire must be kept replenished with human blood regularly.
Photo: Unsplash
Source : IndicaNews