As of now, the Delhi-Dhaka Detente seems to be working, at least diplomatically. It is however hoped that the minorities will be safe and secure in Bangladesh (as much as in India), and the interim government will stop all forms of potential violence against the minorities, and not allow the fundamentalists to call the shots, and, thereby, polarise a secular society.
By Kamran Khan
The situation in Bangladesh, almost four months after the Sheikh Hasina government was overthrown in Dhaka, depends on whom you ask. On August 5 this year, Hasina fled to India, seeking refuge, marking a pivotal political moment in the weeks of unrest and protests that had engulfed Bangladesh since July. Amid the turmoil, an NGO veteran, Muhammad Yunus, was chosen by protesting student leaders to serve as the interim Chief Advisor, reviving a political role that had been established in 1990 after the fall of the General Hussain Muhammad Ershad government. Hasina’s departure triggered even more violence, with attacks now focused on her political party, the Awami League.
This led to a breakdown in basic law and order, a situation that Yunus himself acknowledged in October during an interview with the Bangladeshi newspaper Prothom Alo. While minorities, especially Hindus, in Bangladesh were safe in Hasina’s regime, the fall of her government made them them vulnerable and helpless in a country where Islam is the state religion. Especially, when fundamentalist forces too started playing a sinister role in the power apparatus, and on the streets.
The transition period following a government’s collapse is crucial for any nation. Power vacuums and political struggles can lead to autocratic takeovers or result in widespread protests and uncontrolled violence. In their ,paper Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: New Data, Joseph Wright, Erica Frantz, and Barbara Geddes have highlighted the ousting of the US-backed Shah of Iran in 1979, which led to an autocratic regime under hardline Muslim clerics taking over power in Tehran. They note that such scenarios illustrates three possible outcomes after a dictator’s removal: regime survival under the new leadership, democratisation, or, replacement by another autocratic regime.
Although there is no indication that the new, interim government is autocratic, it is evident that in post-Hasina Bangladesh, street violence, attacks on political and religious opponents, and general disruption seem to be growing across the country.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and his Bangladeshi counterpart, Md Jashim Uddin, who met in Dhaka on Monday, December 9, acknowledged the concerns of both the countries, while expressing a mutual desire to maintain bilateral cooperation and strengthen people-to-people ties. Sources in Dhaka indicated that their discussions set the stage for a potential political rapprochement between the two neighboring nations, which have been exchanging a kind of war of words.
Both sides have reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration on development projects and to foster strong people-to-people connections that had previously benefited both the neighbouring nations, despite the recent tensions that followed the August 5 mass movement, and the reported attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. Although Misri’s talks were part of a regular “structured dialogue” between the countries, they, mainly, served as a diplomatic effort to address the strained relations, which had been aggravated by provocative statements, propaganda, fake news and actions from groups on both sides by sections with sectarian political agendas.
Apart from this, on Monday, December 9, The two countries have expressed hope that the ‘dark cloud’ over Bangladesh-India relations will soon be lifted. During his visit to Dhaka, the Indian foreign secretary met with the Chief Advisor as well.
Following a meeting between the foreign secretaries of both nations, Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary, Jasim Uddin, stated that Bangladesh expects India to play a significant role in addressing negative propaganda.
Significantly, in a discussion with European Union diplomats on December 9 in Dhaka, the Chief Advisor has requested that the visa center be relocated from Delhi to Dhaka, or a neighbouring country. This might lead to another round of tension in the Indian political establishment, which is often dubbed as a bullying ‘big brother’ in its neighbourhood.
Meanwhile, in Dhaka, Labour Advisor M Sakhawat Hossain has also announced that the government has decided to increase the scores of garment workers’ salaries by nine per cent. It is well-known that Bangladesh produces a large quantity of branded garments, etc, usually employing workers, mostly women, in what are literally called ‘sweat shops’. Big designers and multinational companies buy these goods at dirt cheap prices, using skilled but cheap labour in Bangladesh, and sell them in the international market, labeled with their brands, as high-end products at exorbitant prices.
Additionally, the government has raised the price of soybean oil due to a nationwide shortage of edible oil. According to the new decision, the price of bottled soybean oil will increase by 8 taka per liter, bringing the new price to 175 taka.
Meanwhile, as a possible reaction to the concern expressed by India, Bangladesh has stated that 88 incidents of communal violence has been reported when minorities were targeted, mostly Hindus. This happened after the ouster of the Hasina government. The government’s Press Secretary, Shafiqul Alam, has informed that 70 individuals have been arrested; they are linked to the violent incidents.
As of now, the Delhi-Dhaka Detente seems to be working, at least diplomatically. It is however hoped that the minorities will be safe and secure in Bangladesh (as much as in India), and the interim government will stop all forms of potential violence against the minorities, and not allow the fundamentalists to call the shots, and, thereby, polarise a secular society.