Another disaster waiting to happen

Kerala may not be able to take radical steps to fully decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. However, it has significant opportunities to move toward a green path of progress that prioritizes ecological balance and the well-being of society, over violent resource extraction for the sake of an unsustainable development model

By AK Shiburaj

Kerala, often referred to as ‘God’s own country,’ has increasingly borne the brunt of natural disasters in recent years. The state faced Cyclone Ockhi in 2017, followed by devastating floods in 2018 and 2019, among other calamities. The most recent disaster, a landslide in Wayanad on June 30, 2024, claimed over 400 lives, with more than 100 still missing, and wiped out two settlements, leaving a lasting impact on this hilly district in northeast Kerala.

Mundakkai and Chooralmala, twin settlements in Wayanad’s Meppadi Panchayat, were completely obliterated, transforming the once-rolling hills into a grim landscape of destruction. This landslide is the largest in Kerala’s modern history.

The disaster that struck Mundakkai, bears a stark resemblance to the 2019 Puthumala tragedy. However, the 1984 landslide in the same area did not escalate to such a catastrophic level, as the soil integrity was relatively better back then, and anthropogenic activities were less intense.

As part of the global climate crisis, Kerala is grappling with rising temperatures, irregular monsoons, and water scarcity, posing significant challenges for the state government in managing the damage. These recurring natural disasters clearly indicate that the state cannot continue with its current economic policies, development plans, and centralized disaster mitigation strategies.

The state urgently needs to implement effective mitigation plans to address the increasing frequency of heavy rains, floods, landslides and droughts. These recurring disasters have a significant impact on the economy, agriculture, and other sectors. Therefore, the administration, at various levels, along with the civil society, cannot afford to disregard the potential of decentralized climate action at the local level.

It is true that global carbon emissions, particularly from developed countries since the Industrial Revolution, are major contributors to the climate crisis. However, local activities have also accelerated the impact of these disasters.

It is crucial for the state government and civil society to take appropriate measures to minimize the effects of natural disasters in Kerala, a densely populated (860 people per sq km) and geographically small (38,863 sq km) state. The state government and political parties have yet to critically examine the role of land use changes, urbanization, and development activities in exacerbating the impact of the climate crisis.

Though landslides are primarily triggered by factors such as slope, rainfall intensity and soil saturation, development activities like monoculture plantations, unrestrained construction and mining can create a cumulative effect that exacerbates these natural triggers. Such anthropogenic interventions can destabilize ecosystems and become significant contributors to landslides, transforming natural calamities into man-made disasters.

The low-lying areas in the western part of Kerala are particularly prone to flash floods. Despite receiving an annual rainfall of 3,000-3,107 mm — more than double the national average — the state also faces the looming threat of drought, as evidenced by the severe drought of 2017. Due to the state’s sloping terrain, much of the rainfall quickly drains into the sea, leaving the region vulnerable to both floods and droughts.

Given the state’s unique geographical structure, high population density, and fragile ecosystems, an integrated approach is essential to mitigate the impact of natural disasters. As TV Sajeev, Chief Entomologist at the Kerala Forest Research Institute, aptly states: “To reduce the impact of natural disasters, we must maintain the health of nature. This is why we must be very cautious with large constructions that affect the earth’s shape and stability, when quarries are dug, and when roads are built through sloping areas. Otherwise, we will be continually reminded that we cannot live against nature.”

There were violent protests in Kerala against the implementation of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP) report, led by environmentalist Madhav Gadgil. This opposition was strongly supported by politicians across the spectrum and the Christian Church. The state government did not take steps to facilitate an open discussion on the report, or consider viable options to ensure social and environmental justice.

The WGEEP report recommended that the Western Ghats, spanning 129,000 sq km across six states, be declared Ecologically Sensitive Zones (ESZ). It proposed dividing the area into three broad zones — ESZ1, ESZ2 and ESZ3 — with strict development restrictions in the first two zones, to be imposed in consultation with local gram panchayats.

Significantly, the village of Mundakkai, which was recently devastated by a landslide, was specifically identified as one of the 18 proposed ecologically sensitive localities in Kerala.

Unfortunately, all state governments rejected the Gadgil Committee Report. No public discussions were held. This was largely in response to a public backlash over concerns about its impact on local livelihoods and economic growth in the region.

As a result, numerous quarries continue to operate in Wayanad’s Meppadi and Muppainad panchayath. These are areas classified as ‘red zones’ by the Mining and Geological Department. Environmental activists argue that insufficient efforts have been made to regulate the growing number of resorts and quarries by assessing the capacity of these ecologically sensitive areas.

Kerala’s approach to disaster management reveals that an emotional response, immediately after the disaster, is insufficient. The state needs to make substantial changes in land-use patterns, economic policies and planning to develop a resilient disaster mitigation model.

“The reality is that disaster mitigation is often approached through the lens of development, but it should not be a capital-intensive scheme aimed at economic growth or profit. Instead, its purpose is to support human life by ensuring ecological balance and reducing the impact of disasters. The key to effective disaster mitigation lies in comprehensive planning and community involvement. However, the government’s focus on large, centralized projects like ‘Rebuild Kerala’ and ‘Nava Kerala’, initiated after the 2018 flood, often overshadows the need for decentralized, grassroots interventions. Effective disaster management requires localized, community-driven approaches, rather than solely relying on broad, top-down initiatives,” said Professor Dr S Muhammad Irshad of the Disaster Risk Department at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), Mumbai.

How seriously does Kerala take disaster mitigation amidst the frequent recurrence of natural disasters, and the escalating impacts of the climate crisis? Where have the systems failed?

The Kerala Disaster Management Authority needs to critically examine its shortcomings, and the state government should organize disaster mitigation efforts with the active participation of experts and civil society. Without this, the much-acclaimed collaborative efforts for rescue and relief, by the state administration and the public, immediately after each disaster, will have little long-term impact on disaster mitigation.

The question, whether the state can achieve economic growth within the framework of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while simultaneously tackling the climate crisis and adhering to environmental limits, needs to be seriously debated. Ecological economists and environmental activists have long warned that pursuing unlimited economic growth with finite natural resources will inevitably lead to a catastrophe.

Indeed, a state like Kerala may not be able to take radical steps to fully decouple economic growth from carbon emissions on its own. However, it has significant opportunities to move toward a green path of progress that prioritizes ecological balance and the well-being of society, over violent resource extraction for the sake of an unsustainable development model. This shift can be achieved through decentralization and localization, which offers a more sustainable approach to development.

AK Shiburaj is an independent journalist based in Kerala.