After facing prolonged State repression since the arbitrary dissolution of the assembly, Kashmir is going to the polls with an open heart. However, the main contest is between the NC-Congress alliance and the PDP
By Y Latief U Zaman Deva
In the first phase of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, scheduled for September 18, the two regions of Maraz, comprising Anantnag, Pulwama, Kulgam, Shopian districts, and Chenab Valley, which includes Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban districts, will go to polls. The political landscape in these areas is complex, with numerous local power dynamics, historical influences and party affiliations shaping the contest.
Below is a constituency-wise analysis of the electoral battles in these regions.
Pampore
In Pampore, a key battle is unfolding between Justice (Retd) Hasnain Masoodi, the former MP from the Anantnag parliamentary constituency, who is being fielded by the National Conference (NC), and Zahoor Ahmed Mir, the three-time consecutive MLA from the constituency, who has been repeated by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The contest has attracted significant attention as Masoodi, a respected figure due to his legal background, faces off against Mir, an experienced legislator with deep roots in the constituency.
Among the other contestants, Advocate Mohammad Maqbool Shah stands out as a force to reckon with in urban Pampore, which has traditionally been a stronghold of the NC. His entry into the race is expected to split the NC’s urban vote bank, creating complications for the party’s chances.
Syed Showket Andrabi, the BJP candidate, brings a different dimension to the race. Known for his affable nature and intellectual pursuits, Andrabi is the son of the legendary poet and journalist, Ghulam Rasool Gowyor, who had a long-standing association with NC before being killed by militants in 2005.
Also in the fray is Abdul Qayam Mir, a dynamic political activist, who has previously been associated with the PDP and two other local parties. He is now contesting under the banner of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), adding another layer of complexity to the race. Despite the multiplicity of candidates, the main contest remains between the NC and PDP.
Tral
In Tral, Sardar Channi Singh (NC-Congress Alliance), Mohammad Rafiq Naik (PDP), and Dr Ghulam Nabi Bhat (rebel NC faction) are among the notable candidates. Sardar Channi Singh, a well-known Congress leader, enjoys extraordinary public rapport and has a long history of service in the region.
Mohammad Rafiq Naik, on the other hand, is the inheritor of a rich political and social legacy, being the son of Ali Mohammad Naik, a former Minister and MP with affiliations to various political fronts, including the Plebiscite Front, Indian National Congress, Awami National Conference, and National Conference.
Dr Ghulam Nabi Bhat, a former NC MLA and son of Mohammad Subhan Bhat, has deep political roots in the region. His father was a Zaildar and an MLA, known for his unwavering loyalty to Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah and Dr Farooq Abdullah. However, the Bhat family has suffered immense personal losses, with Dr Bhat’s father and two brothers being assassinated between 1990 and 1996.
The history of Kashmir makes it unlikely that the NC rank and file will transfer their vote to the Congress candidate, given their solidarity with the Bhat family.
Another key player is Dr Gurbakh Singh, a PDP District Coordinating Committee (DCC) member, who has been fielded by the AIP. Singh is expected to take a slice of the vote, though the main contest appears triangular between the PDP, the NC rebel faction, and the Congress.
Pulwama
Pulwama is witnessing an intense battle between Waheed Para (PDP), Mohammad Khalil Bandh (NC), and Dr Talat (independent). Para, who symbolises the aspirations of the young, educated population, is seen as a representative of modern values and development-oriented politics. His vision for Pulwama is focused on economic progress and social reforms, making him a popular figure among the youth.
Mohammad Khalil Bandh, who was a three-time MLA from PDP before switching to NC, carries the baggage of his political past, which appears to be at odds with the NC’s current narrative. Bandh’s association with the old guard has not resonated well with the electorate, particularly the younger generation. Dr Talat, the independent candidate, claims to have ties with the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JI).
However, JI’s support base, once substantial, no longer appears eager to back an ‘uncertain cause’. As a result, the contest is shaping up to be a head-to-head battle between the resurgent PDP and the disintegrating local NC unit.
Rajpora
In Rajpora, Mohi u Din Mir (NC), Syed Bashir Ahmad (PDP), Ghulam Nabi Nellora (rebel NC faction), and Arshid Bhat (BJP) are the main contenders.
The PDP has long dominated this constituency, but the late arrival of its candidate has left it vulnerable to NC’s growing presence. Mohi u Din Mir, the NC candidate, has been actively involved in the region for over three decades and is the son of Ghulam Qader Moran, a former MLA with an impeccable reputation. Moran resigned from the Plebiscite Front in 1967 and contested as an independent candidate, winning the election.
Ghulam Nabi Nellora, whose father and eldest brother were both killed by militants due to their NC affiliations, is now contesting against the very party he once represented. This dramatic reversal highlights the internal fissures within NC. Nellora’s decision to run as an independent candidate may fragment the vote further, particularly since he was not given another opportunity after losing one election.
Meanwhile, the BJP candidate, Arshid Bhat, has injected energy into his campaign, engaging with younger voters and adding a new dynamic to the race. Although the contest may appear to involve multiple contenders, the real battle is between NC, PDP, and Nellora.
Zainapora
In Zainapora, Showket Hussain Ghanai (NC), Gh Mohi Din Wani (PDP), and Aijaz Ahmed Mir (rebel, supported by JI) are the key candidates. Despite NC’s repeated losses in this constituency, Ghanai has been drafted to revive the party’s fortunes. His candidature represents a strategic effort by NC to regain lost ground. Mohi Din Wani, a former banker fielded by the PDP, is also in the running, but the wildcard in this race is Aijaz Ahmed Mir, a former PDP MLA now contesting as a rebel with the backing of JI.
This makes for a triangular contest that will be keenly watched.
Shopian
In Shopian, Mohammad Rafi Sheik (NC), Yawar Banday (PDP), Javid Qadri (BJP), Raja Waheed (AIP), and Advocate Shabir Ahmad Kulay (rebel NC) are among the contestants. NC’s candidate, the son of Sheikh Mansoor Ahmed, who served as an NC legislator from 1977 to 1990, faces tough competition.
Mansoor Ahmed was a highly respected figure, credited with introducing commercial fruit plantation in Maraz. Like many other political figures in the region, he was assassinated by militants.
The PDP has consistently won this constituency from 2003 to 2014, thanks to strong public support.
To address the erosion in its vote bank following the recent parliamentary elections, the PDP has fielded Yawar Banday, the grandson of Ab Majid Banday, a former legislator known for his honesty and pro-people stance.
Raja Waheed, a former PDP hopeful, is now contesting under the AIP banner after working tirelessly in the area for three years.
Meanwhile, Shabir Kulay, having failed to secure the NC mandate, is now running as an independent. Despite the presence of multiple candidates, the main contest is expected to narrow down to NC, PDP, and Kulay.
DH Pora
The main candidates in DH Pora are Sakeena Ittoo (NC), Gulzar Ahmed Dar (PDP) and Abdul Majeed Padder (Apni Party).
Ittoo is the daughter of Wali Mohammed Ittoo, a two-time legislator who was killed by militants. She has successfully carried forward her father’s legacy, winning elections in 1996 and 2008. However, she lost in both 2003 and 2014, as the electorate opted for an alternative political leadership.
Gulzar Ahmed Dar, hailing from a remote part of the constituency, has a grassroots connection with the people and is known for his advocacy for the weaker sections of society.
Ab Majeed Padder, a former PDP MLA and minister, switched to the Apni Party after the historic events of August 5, 2019. Originally associated with the Congress, Padder’s popularity stems from his strong rapport with the masses. A triangular contest between NC, PDP, and Apni Party is expected, but PDP will need to work hard to bridge the perceived gap with NC.
Kulgam
In Kulgam, MY Tarigami (CPI(M)), Mohammed Amin Dar (PDP), Nazir Ahmad Laway (Peoples Conference) and Sayar Ahmad Reshi (JI, independent) are the main candidates. Tarigami, a political veteran, is contesting his eighth election in Kulgam. Despite setbacks in the 1977, 1983, and 1987 elections, he has been on a winning streak since 1996.
His longevity and personal integrity have garnered him a loyal following, though PDP’s Dar represents a younger generation of leadership. Tarigami’s strength lies in his ability to connect with voters on both ideological and personal levels, which may give him an edge over his competitors.
Devsar
Devsar has been significantly altered following the 2022 delimitation, which saw 35 per cent of its population fall into Anantnag district. Sartaj Madni (PDP), Mohammed Amin Bhat (DPAP), Feroz Shah (NC) and Amman Ullah (INC) are the main contenders.
PDP’s Madni has won the constituency twice, while DPAP’s Amin Bhat has also tasted victory once.
The other two candidates are relatively new to electoral politics. A friendly contest between NC and INC is expected to impact their chances negatively, as the split vote will likely benefit PDP.
A single NC-INC candidate would have posed a more significant threat to PDP’s dominance. The contest here is triangular, involving PDP, NC, and DPAP.
Dooru
Dooru, the largest constituency with a population of 192,381, is seeing a contest between GA Mir (INC) and Abdul Rashid Malik (PDP). The NC-INC alliance is functioning smoothly in this constituency, with Mir having won twice as an INC candidate.
Malik, a former district sessions judge, is a relatively new face in politics but is well-regarded for his integrity. Despite his family’s NC background, Malik’s reputation as a fair and just individual has made him a strong candidate for PDP.
However, the relatively short time Malik has had to build support, compared to Mir, who has been campaigning for over six months, may affect his chances. The contest is direct between INC and PDP, with PDP needing to cover significant ground.
Kokernag
A reserved constituency for Scheduled Tribes (ST), Kokernag, has a population of 34.27 per cent of STs. Choudhary Zaffer (NC) and Choudhary Haroon (PDP), both descendants of Choudhary Israel of Kashwan, Sofshali Kokernag, are the main contenders.
Zaffer, the son of Choudhary M Shafi, has been actively involved in mainstream politics and has represented various parties over the years. Haroon is well-known for his work in developing housing and commercial plots, particularly in Jammu’s Bathendi area. Although the competition is tight, Zaffer’s long-standing political experience gives him a slight edge over Haroon.
However, the PDP has the resources and the organizational strength to reverse this trend in a fair and legally compliant manner.
Anantnag West
Anantnag West is an amalgamation of parts of Devsar and Homshali Bugh constituencies, now falling in the Anantnag district, along with densely populated areas of the Anantnag constituency. Ab Gafar Sofi (PDP), Ab Majeed Bhat (NC), Mohammed Rafiq Bhat (BJP) and Aquib Mushtaq (AIP) are the main contenders. Sofi has twice represented Homshalibugh in the Legislative Assembly but lost to NC’s Bhat in the 2014 elections.
The BJP and AIP candidates are new to electoral politics. The PDP and NC candidates will need to mount aggressive campaigns to persuade voters from the three formerly separate parts of this new constituency to come out and vote on election day. The contest is expected to be between PDP and NC.
Anantnag
Anantnag has been reshaped, with outlying areas sequestered into Anantnag West, while more distant regions have been included in the constituency. Dr Mehboob Beg (PDP), Peerzada Mohammed Syed (INC), Hila Ahmad Shah (AP), and Syed Wazahat (BJP) are the main contenders. Dr Beg, the youngest son of legendary leader Mirza Mohammed Afzal Beg, has represented Anantnag twice as an NC candidate, before switching to PDP, ahead of the 2014 Assembly elections.
The PDP founder and former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Syed is widely credited with spearheading various developmental projects in the region, earning him significant goodwill. Anantnag was traditionally an NC stronghold but was lost to the PDP in the 2008 and 2014 elections, due to Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s involvement in the region.
Peerzada Mohammed Syed faces an uphill task, relying almost entirely on NC’s support. The contest here is triangular, with PDP having a visible advantage over the INC and AP candidates.
Mansoor Hussain Suhriwardhy, former PDP MLA, who had later joined the People’s Conference but resigned on the eve of elections from the party, is contesting as an independent candidate from the Anantnag constituency. His determination to carve out a dedicated constituency for himself is worth praising, regardless of the outcomes.
Srigufwara-Bijbehara
The Srigufwara-Bijbehara constituency has a long history of NC dominance, with the party winning in 1977, 1983 and 1987. However, since 1998, it has been a PDP stronghold.
Under the delimitation award of 2022, parts of Humshali Bugh, including the JI bastion of Arwani and surrounding villages, have been incorporated into the constituency, adding a new dimension to the race. Ilteja Mufti (PDP), Dr Bashir Ahmed Veri (BJP), and Sofi Mohammed Yousuf (BJP) are the main contestants. Ilteja Mufti, a new face in electoral politics, has emerged as a formidable candidate, representing a legacy that resonates with the electorate.
Her oratory skills and persuasive nature have won her significant support, even among those previously indifferent to PDP. Veri, a prominent academic and politician, is a worthy competitor, but faces a tough battle to keep pace with Mufti. Sofi Yousuf, the BJP candidate, has carved out a limited but significant support base, although his presence is unlikely to alter the main contest between PDP and NC.
The writer is a retired IAS officer and former chairperson of the Jammu and Kashmir Public Service Commission.
This article has been first published in Kashmir Times.