India is confronting a difficult conundrum — the need to traverse a rapidly changing landscape in Bangladesh, without jeopardizing its long-term interests. India, thus, can’t afford to abandon its neighbour only because a new regime has taken charge
By Shujaat Ali Quadri
Embers of the Bangladesh crisis are now cooling, though the healing process is still far away. However, there will be several crucial lessons for Indian foreign policy-makers to draw from the debacle.
Ousted and exiled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, was India’s best, or, perhaps, only bet to navigate the dynamics in the neighbouring country, which owes its independence to the valour of the Indian armed forces and the tenacity of the Indian leadership, led by Indira Gandhi and Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw.
Certainly, the change of guard in Dhaka heralds a new epoch. Bangladesh has undergone a churning that has its youth in the forefront in almost a similar way as was witnessed in the liberation war of 1971. However, then, India was hailed as a hero. This time, New Delhi has been caught at a wrong end.
Indeed, it shouldn’t stop Indian diplomats from reorienting to the altered realities. They should grab the moment before rivals enhance their grip.
Bangladesh is acutely pivotal to India’s immediate neighbourhood concerns. It shares a 4000-km long border with five Indian states — West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura.
The Hasina imbroglio: Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party have strong ties with New Delhi. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia. She has crafted stronger relations by improving trade and connectivity, and clamping down on anti-India militants on her side of the border.
Successive Indian governments have backed her despite concerns about her high-handedness, intolerance of dissent and arrests of opponents. She has developed a strong rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he assumed office in 2014, and has enjoyed close ties with the Gandhi family and Congress party.
As Hasina exited Dhaka after her 15-year rule, her first destination was a natural choice — Delhi. She was welcomed by India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, thereby giving a signal that India values her safety. She continues to live in Delhi.
However, Hasina has not merely fled her country, she has run away from strong anti-government protests that has left hundreds dead and plunged the nation into serious crisis and political turmoil. The minorities, especially Hindus, have come under violent attacks.
Her downfall not only bodes ill for India’s interests, it also puts an excessive burden to defend her government which has become a symbol of a ‘democratic dictatorship’. Her autocratic style of governance and penchant for crushing dissent has echoed in Indian media’s political commentary.
In fact, Hasina’s tendency to centralise decision-making and marginalise the opposition managed to limit Bangladesh’s evolution into a mature democracy. As she drifted towards authoritarianism, India found itself crippled with few options to deal with Bangladesh on a bigger canvas. For India, it became a one-window ticket to have parleys with Dhaka.
In such circumstances, despite her priority to India-centric projects, the long-term relationship was full of peril, especially when dissent was brewing. Indeed, this simmering dissent could explode any time!
Finally, it did, in recent months! And, as was expected, India was clubbed with Hasina as a major ‘catalyst of trouble’.
Failure of ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy: The debacle in Dhaka is not the only a foreign policy failure of New Delhi. It has faced similar mishaps in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Mauritius and Maldives.
In fact, a Norway think-tank recently organized a seminar, ‘Failure of India’s Neighbourhood First Policy’ that discussed various contours of mistakes committed by India to win over countries in its close proximity. One of the reasons cited by panelists was that the treatment of minorities, their relentless persecution by extremist groups, and the government’s silence on such oppression, has caused India a lot of optic mileage. Even the curbs on the Press, felt panelists, have worked against the Indian government, which, itself, has been seeking a boost of its overseas image.
Besides, New Delhi’s focus on military measures, rather than social elements, has helped increase tension across the region, thereby increasing anti-India sentiment, the seminar concluded. In a footnote it added that India’s patronising attitude towards smaller neighbours is “now grappling with multi-layered diplomatic challenges, with SAARC member-states”.
Commentators believe that the current Indian government’s association with organizations like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and other Hindutva groups, operating with impunity, has portrayed it as a Right-wing and extremist government. Hence, this has become obvious whenever any anti-minority incident happens in India. Not only countries in the neighbourhood, the Gulf, and European and American countries too seem to have similar understanding of contemporary India.
Newspapers like The Washington Post and The New York Times regularly publish reports highlighting such anomalies in India, which prides itself as the world’s largest democracy. Hence, it will be advisable for New Delhi to contain the side-effects of its domestic politics, while it shores up its diplomacy abroad.
Signposts and future: The immediate challenge for India will be in the form of a possible refugee influx as minorities, especially Hindus, have borne the brunt of the upsurge against the Hasina-led dispensation. Even though the caretaker government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has promised to restore law and order, worries still linger.
Apart from this, India is confronting a difficult conundrum — the need to traverse a rapidly changing landscape in Bangladesh, without jeopardizing its long-term interests. It has lent around $8 billion to Dhaka since 2016, and Bangladesh figures in all its geo-political configurations, like the ‘Act East Policy’, SAGAR Doctrine, and the Indo-Pacific Vision. India, thus, can’t afford to abandon its neighbour only because a new regime has taken charge.
The instant test for India’s diplomacy will be the status of its guest — Sheikh Hasina. It has granted her temporary asylum, which will be stretched in case she doesn’t get shelter elsewhere. Her extended stay could complicate its relations with Bangladesh.
The new government has launched an investigation into the violence that has resulted in numerous deaths during the nationwide agitation against her. It could potentially seek her extradition from India.
Besides, any attempt to wash its hand off her could influence other regional leaders, who have traditionally aligned with India. This might lead them to question the reliability of Indian support.
Many foreign policy commentators have fervently suggested a solution for this dilemma: “Why put all our eggs in Hasina’s basket; we have already reaped dividends for it. If we stick to her, we may lose Bangladesh to our arch rivals — China and Pakistan.” It is a clear hint that some policy-makers have been in favour of ‘sacrificing’ Hasina to rescue our interests and investment in Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, in a careful display of craftsmanship, the Modi government has opened a window of communication with the Yunus regime. Modi spoke with him, congratulated him, and drew an assurance on the safety of the minorities. It will bode well for India if the Modi-Yunus ties strengthen, and India is able to negotiate thorny issues with finesse.
India’s response will need to be measured and proactive, while engaging constructively with the new leadership in Dhaka. For India, the post-Hasina Bangladesh underscores the necessity of linking up with a range of stakeholders, while upholding its strategic objectives.
Even India’s bete noire, the hardline Jamaat-e-Islami, has emitted happiness over Modi having a friendly chat with Yunus. It has hoped that there will be a change of perception on India’s side, and vice versa.
Along with Jamaat, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Khaleda Zia has been known for its anti-India stance, though, when in power, it used to treat India as a friendly country. However, in the last 15 years, many of its senior leaders have been either exiled, or jailed. While the Indian media has effectively demonised them.
New Delhi must mend the ‘jilted relations’ with BNP which will not be averse to any genuine overture from it. Like Jamaat, the BNP wields strong influence among the poor, and in certain rural areas. This is the section which should be given scholarships to study in India, specialized training, and opportunities for apprenticeships.
Undoubtedly, the coming months will be critical in shaping the future of India-Bangladesh relations. The path forward will demand agility and diplomatic skills, as India adjusts to the major changes in its neighbourhood.
Dr Shujat Ali Quadri is Editor, Digital Forensics Research Analytics Centre (DFRAC), a media organization of fact-checkers based in Delhi.
Photo taken from the Twitter(X) account of Sheikh Hasina.